Dampak Perubahan Tutupan Lahan Dan Iklim Terhadap Fungsi Hidrologi Daerah Aliran Sungai Konaweha Hulu
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32679/jsda.v9i2.156Abstract
Model hidrologi dapat digunakan untuk menguraikan akibat yang saling berkaitan antara perubahan iklim dan tutupan lahan terhadap proses hidrologi. Model Generic River Flow (GenRiver) dan HBV diaplikasikan untuk mensimulasikan dampak dari perubahan yang penting pada tutupan hutan dan perubahan iklim sederhana di daerah hulu DAS Konaweha (2,856 km2) yang terletak di Kabupaten Konawe dan Kolaka, Sulawesi Tenggara. Setelah proses kalibrasi dan verifikasi model berhasil dilakukan, simulasi dijalankan untuk menilai kondisi tutupan lahan 1990-2010. Skenario untuk 21 tahun mendatang (2010-2030), menggunakan 8 kombinasi faktorial dari: (1) Bussiness as usual (BAU) (ekstrapolasi perubahan tutupan lahan yang terjadi 21 tahun terakhir (1990-2010)) dibandingkan dengan tidak adanya perubahan tutupan lahan sejak kondisi tahun 2010; (2) skenario iklim global A1F1 dan B1 yang diubah ke dalam skala lokal (skenario IPCC) ; dan (3) intensitas curah hujan tinggi dan rendah. Berdasarkan model, perubahan potensial pada intensitas curah hujan, tanpa mengubah curah hujan harian akan berdampak pada aliran permukaan dan pola debit musiman. Sedangkan perubahan tutupan lahan mempunyai dampak yang lebih sederhana dan perubahan iklim berdasarkan skenario IPCC tidak akan memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap neraca air di daerah hulu DAS Konaweha.References
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